Five years, housing prices doubled, it is real or a lie

 Five years, housing prices doubled, it is real or a lie?
Tongda Huan
State Securities chief economist of the recently released King of rock will double again. This is tantamount to giving the already overheated property market fuel.
Golden Rock explained that China is in the acceleration phase of the process of urbanization, urban land and property due to the relative and absolute scarcity of the become a commodity, and U.S. and European countries have already completed the process of urbanization, land development and real estate transactions of premium premium disappeared, the nature of consumer goods back home, the consumer price index includes housing prices. revolutionary social change, in the next 20 years in the city of 5 million people in the way of life will be changed forever! The comparison between to know. Beijing will have 300 million people, the greater Shanghai will have 200 million people. prices are likely to break 30 million / square meter. 12 million for a breakthrough product, the Beijing Yintai Center over 10 million. not to the general house price, we do not flustered.
But he said prices rose twice the next five years, is there a possibility? I remember probably in 2003, when the Ministry of Construction has done two experts Huai predicted: First, China's vehicle fleet over the next decade will reach one hundred million. now this prophecy about five years to break through. another prophecy, to the effect that the next decade, housing prices rose three-fold. Now over the past five years, the majority of urban housing more than doubled, tripled and some properties.
Pan Shiyi recently studied some parts of the world of commercial real estate and feel compared to many international metropolis in the international, house prices compared to our income, housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai are high, but he also believed that other countries and areas of real estate has lost the support of urbanization, so Beijing to Shanghai has its price reasonable. to that effect.
other day, me and my wife said, and a friend also said that within five years house prices will double in some regions. This point of view, views with the King of rock has coincided place. We consider inflation, consider the factors of wage income growth, large cities in local area housing prices doubled in five years, I am afraid will be a matter of course the fact that warm boiled frog today. want is a terrible truth, but it's the process, it may not be imagined as today terror, but along with the real estate market ups and downs, and even can be used to describe the ups and downs.
said the Golden Rock Beijing will be the big 3 million people, the greater Shanghai and 2 billion people will say, I'm not sure, but I have a study that: The second phase of urbanization: metropolitan stage. this stage, in addition to rural-urban migration pace is still small, medium and small urban population to large cities, large cities will be greatly accelerated the pace of migration. big cities, the population of megacities mechanical growth of at least catch up with even more than the national average growth rate of urban population. so, if the annual growth rate of 3% by 2020, the beginning of Beijing's population will increase based on the existing 45%, reaching 24.65 million; if at 4% annual growth rate, will be increased by 61% to 27.37 million. Shanghai has a population of 18 million, when the time is almost equal to 29 million. In 2000, the Nobel laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz on the assertion: the process of the 21st century, the most profound of human society two things, first, the new US-led technological revolution (the Internet is witnessing mm of Note) Second, the urbanization movement in China. Many people do not mind, will miss a lot of change and the timing of investments. I want to emphasize is that the urbanization movement in China, more thrilling is the largest city of sport. Here I am afraid I do not elaborate. The city of movement, will inevitably affect the price.
but above said house prices, long-term price movements. long-term housing by the City of decision, but the short-term rates by the money supply which policy decisions. That is why, after the 2007 peak in house prices, there will be a collapse of the process. one for the analysis of 2002-2006 data showed that: the supply of real estate credit for every 1% increase in house prices to increase 0.45%. today's prices at the industry recovery is illusion, is the Return of the king, price recovery, and the rigid demands of the recovery of these factors, this is the main reason for the recovery led to the current property market. in which this recovery, some adjustments have not seen any signs, so the recovery of a number of issues covered, The real problem has not been resolved.
in the loose monetary policy and housing prices decline in a timely manner, based on pent-up demand at the end of the rigidity of the first three months of this year basically been released, after the prices in March rapidly rising demand and the rigid back wait and see mood is cumulative. Although the surface of macro-adjustment policies have not, it is estimated will not be as harsh as the end of 2007, but experienced a slump 07,08,09 mm mm year rose rose market, the market seems to have become more mature some, the adjustment is beginning its own.